The map of military influence in Syria for the month of October 2019 showed a clear difference in the ratios of total control between the conflicting forces on Syrian territory compared to the ratios recorded in September 2019.
The major changes to the map of military influence are the result of the launch of Operation Spring Peace in northeastern Syria. Turkey launched the Operation on October 9, 2019, and it involved the participation of the Turkish Army and the Syrian National Army. It must be noted that there have been no new changes in the map of military influence in the de-escalation zone since the Russian unilateral truce was declared on August 31, 2019. The lack of changes is despite continuing Russian violations ranging from artillery, rocket and air strikes to attempts to storm the fronts in Idlib and Latakia.
According to the map issued by the Jusoor Center for Studies, the ratios of power control on the ground are as follows:
- The opposition factions’ control increased by 12.12% compared to the 9.94% recorded last month with an area equivalent to 22616 Km2 of the total area in Syria.
- The Syrian Defense Force’s (SDF) ratio of control decreased from 27.84% held since May to 25.67%. The SDF controls an area equivalent to 47,786 Km2 of the total area in Syria.
- The Syrian regime forces maintained the ratio of control (62.22%) recorded in September. The Syrian regime forces control an area equivalent to around 116,067 Km2 of the total area in Syria.
- The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has no military control in Syrian territory since February 2019.
During Operation Peace Spring in eastern Euphrates, the Syrian National Army controlled a ratio of 2.18%, an area equivalent to 4076 Km2 of the total area in Syria, and 33.2% of the total area of the safe area estimated at 12261 Km2. The areas under Syrian National Army control included the cities of Ras al-Ain, Tal Abyad and many villages and towns.
On October 23, 2019, Turkey and Russia signed the Sochi Memorandum under which Operation Peace Spring was suspended. Based on the memorandum, the safety zone was divided into three sections:
- The first section includes the area of Operation Peace Spring where the Turkish army and Syrian National Army are deployed. The area extends 120 Km in length and 32 km in depth. The area is an estimated 4334 Km2.
- The second section includes a security zone extending along 440 Km of the border strip at a depth of 10 Km. Russian-Turkish joint patrols are conducted in the area and the Syrian regime border guards are deployed in the area.
- The third section includes an area that starts begins from the security zone border to a depth of 20 Km and a length of 440 Km border. Russian military police and Syrian regime border guards are deployed in this area.