Forecasting the Syrian scene in 2023

Forecasting the Syrian scene in 2023

Reviewing the local and international developments that occurred in Syria in 2022 makes it seems like that 2023 does not bring major changes in the scene, with the exception of some repercussions resulting from the tense relations between international actors. 

As it is expected that there will be an escalation against Iran due to the failure to reach a nuclear agreement. Furthermore, Western forces might exercise more political pressure on Russia through Syria, by working to create mechanisms to deal with the continued obstruction of the course of constitutional reform . 

Moreover, it is unlikely that regional actors’ efforts to normalize relations with the regime will develop to an advanced political and economic level, in light of the continuation and expected tightening of economic sanctions against the regime. However, some neighboring countries may resort to maintaining advanced channels of communication with the regime in order to address some limited security and economic problems. 

In light of the political stalemate and the continuation of economic sanctions, it is difficult to be optimistic about an economic improvement in the various areas of control, especially since international disputes may hinder significant progress in early recovery projects. 

This report helps experts, researchers, and those interested in knowing the future of the Syrian scene, the state of local actors in it, and the positions and policies of international actors towards a scene as such in 2023. 

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Map of the distribution of Syrians inside and outside Syria

Working in the economic, political, and social sectors is not possible without considering the demographic dimension. Population issues have remained a focal point for many research institutions, as demographic changes have impacted everyone. Similarly, migration and displacement issues have remained prominent throughout the years of conflict in Syria.